Posts Tagged El Nino

Dec 8 2014

NOAA: Don’t Count On El Niño To Bring Drought Relief In California

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It’s less likely an El Niño event will bring rain to parched California farms next fall or winter.

The forecast released Thursday from the Climate Prediction Center (National National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) said the chance of El Niño is about 70 percent during the Northern Hemisphere this summer and is close to 80 percent during the fall and early winter.

But Michelle Mead, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento said the chance of a strong El Niño is not favored and forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter.

She said for Northern California and the San Joaquin Valley, the best estimate is for a weak to moderate event. Mead said there is little correlation between weak-to-moderate El Niño events and above-normal rainfall.

“El Niño right now is not looking like a slam dunk as far as helping us with our drought scenario,” said Mead.

Mead said if there is a strong El Niño it would means an increased chance of rain for California, but mostly for Southern California. But she said, even that is unlikely.

“The latest forecast ensemble models are actually indicating that the type of El Niño that could develop would be weak to slightly moderate and there’s no guarantee that Southern California will see increased precipitation,” said Mead.

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 UC Davis researchers say “the drought is likely to stretch to a fourth straight year, through 2015, if not longer – regardless of El Niño conditions.”

“El Niño only means potential for at or above normal precipitation and we are so far behind in precipitation that even if we get normal amounts for next year it would not end the drought,” said Mead.

But she said flooding can happen very quickly, even during drought.

“You can actually have a drought scenario where one or two strong Pacific storms move in and small creeks and streams can rise quickly,” said Mead. “There won’t be a big influx of moisture and people should continue to conserve water.”

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the date line and 120oW), according to NOAA.

El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode.

NOAA said the term originally referred to an annual warming of sea-surface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America.

El Niño events can bring flooding to some countries and drought to other countries.


 

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Nov 7 2014

Meteorologist explains El Niño, likely to develop this winter

Republished with permission of SEAFOODNEWS.COM November 6, 2014
In 1997-1998 abnormally high ocean temperatures off South America caused a collapse of the anchovy fisheries. Anchovies are a vital link in the food chain, and shortages can bring great hardship. Weather extremes associated with the event caused 2,000 deaths and $33 million (€26 million) in property damage. One commentator wrote that the warming event had “more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs”.

As it is not uncommon for an ocean warming to commence around Christmas, the fisherman of Peru call it El Niño, the Christ child. El Niño occurs when the temperature of the equatorial ocean west of South America is above normal, but its effects are more widespread.

Weather patterns in Indonesia and Australasia and the monsoons of southern Asia are affected. East Africa and North America also feel its impact. The heavy rainfall of Indonesia ceases, and droughts and wildfires are common in southeast Asia and Australia. Meanwhile, the mid- Pacific suffers a deluge.

During El Niño, the trade winds – which normally blow towards the west – weaken, allowing warm water from the western Pacific to slosh eastwards. El Niño lasts from a few months to a year or more and occurs about twice each decade, but its period is very irregular. It is linked to a see-saw pattern in which pressure in Tahiti is high when it is low in Darwin and vice versa. Together, this gives us Enso (El Niño southern oscillation).

Since February of 2014, some atmospheric models have been predicting the onset of El Nino, but it never quite materializes.

At the moment, there is evidence of warming along the South American Pacific coast, but that has not yet reached El Nino thresholds, despite disrupting the anchovy fisheries.

The current NOAA forecast says “Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015. However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize. If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

In Australia the Bureau of Meteorology says  “Weather conditions similar to El Nino will continue amid warming of the Pacific Ocean as thresholds for the event that brings drought to Asia and heavier-than-usual rains to South America may be reached by early next year.

Three of eight climate models may reach El Nino thresholds in January and another two remain just shy of the levels, the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today, maintaining an Oct. 21 outlook. The forecaster kept a watch status, indicating at least a 50 percent chance of a weak to moderate event, it said.

The bureau has pushed back projections for the onset of El Nino as changes to the atmosphere have failed to develop consistently. A weak event will probably develop by year end, MDA Weather Services predicted last month. El Ninos can roil agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought or too much rain. Palm oil, cocoa, coffee and sugar are among crops most at risk, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has said.

“Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed over the past two months, and the Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, but indicators generally remain in the neutral range,” the bureau said. “The existence of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific sub-surface supports a continuation of the current near-El Nino conditions.”

While sea-surface temperatures are warmer than normal across most areas in the tropical Pacific ocean, it still doesn’t qualify as an El Nino, Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist at MDA said in response to e-mailed questions. Some additional warming could lead to the development of a weak El Nino, he said.
Nov 4 2014

Warmest sea temperatures in 30 years seen off California coast, but El Nino not a factor

Posted with permission of SeafoodNews.com

SEAFOODNEWS.COM [Monterey County Herald] By Paul Rogers  Nov 3, 2014

Hawaiian ono swimming off the California coast? Giant sunfish in Alaska? A sea turtle usually at home off the Galapagos Islands floating near San Francisco?

Rare changes in wind patterns this fall have caused the Pacific Ocean off California and the West Coast to warm to historic levels, drawing in a bizarre menagerie of warm-water species. The mysterious phenomena are surprising fishermen and giving marine biologists an aquatic Christmas in November.
Temperatures off the California coast are currently 5 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than historic averages for this time of year — among the warmest autumn conditions of any time in the past 30 years.
“It’s not bathtub temperature, ” said Nate Mantua, a research scientist with the National Marine Fisheries Service in Santa Cruz, “but it is swimmable on a sunny day. ”
In mid-October, it was 65 degrees off the Farallon Islands and in Monterey Bay, and 69 degrees off Point Conception near Santa Barbara. In most years, water temperatures in those areas would be in the high 50s or low 60s.
The last time the ocean off California was this warm was in 1983 and 1997, both strong El Niño years that brought drenching winter rains to the West Coast.
But El Niño isn’t driving this year’s warm-water spike, which began in mid-July, experts say. Nor is climate change.
What’s happening is winds that normally blow from the north, trapping warm water closer to the equator, have slackened since the summer. That’s allowed the warm water to move north.
In most years, the winds also help push ocean surface waters, churning up cold water from down below. That process, called upwelling, isn’t happening as much this year.
“If the wind doesn’t blow, there’s no cooling of the water, ” Mantua said. “It’s like the refrigerator fails. The local water warms up from the sun, and is not cooling off. ”
Mantua said researchers don’t know why the winds slacked off — or when they will start again.
“It’s a mystery, ” he said.
All year, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been forecasting an El Niño, conditions in which warm ocean water at the equator near South America can affect the weather in dramatic ways. But now the water is only slightly warmer than normal at the equator, leading scientists to declare a mild El Niño is on the way. And although strong El Niños often have brought wet winters to California, mild ones have just as often resulted in moderate or dry winters.
For people who study the ocean, this fall has been a wonderland.
“It’s fascinating, ” said Eric Sanford, a marine biology professor at the UC Davis Bodega Marine Laboratory in Bodega Bay. “To see so many southern species in a single year is really a rare event. ”
Sanford, colleague Jackie Sones and other researchers at the Bodega lab, along with scientists at Point Blue Conservation Science, a nonprofit group in Petaluma, have documented more than 100 common dolphins off the Farallon Islands in the past two months. They’re normally seen hundreds of miles away, off Southern California.
The scientists have scooped up a tiny species of ocean snail called the tropical sea butterfly, normally found far to the south. They have documented a Guadalupe fur seal, normally found off Baja California in Mexico; blue buoy barnacles and purple-striped jellyfish, which usually drift off Southern California; and a Guadalupe murrelet, a tiny seabird that frequents Mexico.
In September, a fisherman off San Francisco caught an endangered green sea turtle, an extremely rare find for Northern California, since the species usually lives off Mexico and the Galapagos Islands. He returned it to the sea unharmed.
Similar tales are turning up in Southern California, where fishermen and scientists have found Hawaiian ono, along with tripletail, a fish species commonly found between Costa Rica and Peru, and other warm-water species.
In August and September there were even sightings of skipjack tuna and giant sunfish, or mola mola, off Alaska.
“They are following the water temperature, ” said H. J. Walker, a senior museum scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. “Fish come up against a cold-water barrier normally and turn around. But now they aren’t encountering that, so they are swimming farther north. ”
Over the past week, the water temperature at the Scripps pier in La Jolla was 71 degrees. The historic average back to 1916 for late October is 65 degrees.
In many parts of California, the commercial salmon catch was down, and squid were caught as far north as Eureka, which is unusual.
“Our guys in Santa Barbara are saying there’s almost nothing down there. Just a lot of warm, clear water, a little bit of salmon and not much else, ” said Zeke Grader, executive director of the Pacific Federation of Fishermen’s Associations in San Francisco.
The ocean changes also have affected birds. As ocean upwelling stalled in the summer, less krill and other food rose from the depths. As a result, several species of birds, including common murres, had high rates of egg failure on the Farallon Islands, 27 miles west of San Francisco.
“The krill that is usually present disappeared, and the fish that some of these birds rely on disappeared, ” said Jaime Jahncke, California Current Group director of Point Blue in Petaluma.
“Up until July we had an abundance of whales around the Farallons, mostly humpback whales, and some blue whales. And when we went back in September, there was no krill and the whales were nearly absent. ”
More common local species are expected to return when waters cool, as they did after the 1983 and 1997 warmings.
“It is an oddball year. But I’m not surprised, ” said Joe Welsh, associate curator of collecting for the Monterey Bay Aquarium. “These things come and go. There’s a lot to learn out there. ”

Read the original post at SeaFoodNews.com

Oct 2 2014

Do more fish in SoCal predict El Nino weather?

A number of exotic bounty normally found in more tropical waters have been popping up across Southern California, exciting fishermen and researchers alike.”This year is probably the first time in 15 years that we’ve had really good tuna fishing close to the California coastline,” said Dr. Chris Lowe, a professor at Cal State Long Beach’s Shark Lab.Tuna aren’t the only marine life turning up. Video from Dana Point Whale Watch shows a hammerhead shark attacking yellowfin tuna off the coast. Those who went to Manhattan Beach this summer were also greeted by blue creatures known as velella.

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A hammerhead swims through Dana Point waters in this undated file photo. (Dave Beeninga, DanaWharf.com)

 

But what’s bringing all the marine life to our ocean?

“The animals are following warm water and the prey that move with those conditions,” Lowe said.

Experts say ocean water temperatures last month alone hit 76 degrees, almost 10 degrees warmer than average.

“The last time we had conditions was in the late-80s when we had the strong El Nio periods,” Lowe said.

Lowe said it’s not yet clear if the increase in marine life signals a full El Nino.

“Normally, when we have El Nino conditions, we have really wet falls,” Lowe said. “We’re hoping that we get an El Nino that will bring us more water.”


View original story here.

Sep 27 2014

A bigger chance of El Niño returning in 2014, but with little rain

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An image from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory shows a pair of warmer Kelvin waves heading towards the South American coast. NASA/JPL

 

El Niño can’t seem to make up its mind. After climatologists had previously stated that the chances of the warming weather phenomenon occurring this winter were becoming ever slimmer, it seems that there may now be a “glimmer of hope for a very modest comeback,” according to a press release from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Ocean temperatures in equatorial Pacific had been rising earlier this year — indicating El Niño conditions. But they fell over the summer — dashing hopes for much needed rain.

Satellite images now show that warmer eastward “Kelvin waves” are headed towards the South American coast in the next two months, indicating a resurgent El Niño weather pattern. However, if El Niño triggers a wetter winter, it probably won’t mean drought-busting rain.

“If I was to compare where we are at with El Niño with where we were in ‘97-‘98, which was the Godzilla El Niño, I would call this one the gecko El Niño,” JPL climatologist Bill Patzert tells KPCC. He says El Niños can be small and modest and have little to no impact whatsoever on our rainfall.

NASA scientists will continue to monitor the Pacific for any changes.

Watch NASA video of El Niño forming earlier this year.


View original post: www.scpr.org

Sep 7 2014

El Niño forecast is up in the air for Southern California

drought-photos-20140619-022

With the summer winding down, weather officials say the winter forecast is wide open.

While a mild-to-moderate El Niño weather pattern is widely expected to develop in the fall, forecast models have “projected many different outcomes,” said Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

“The odds of drier than normal winter are just as high as a wetter than normal winter,” he said in a video released Tuesday.

Last month, climatologists downgraded the chance of El Niño forming this fall from 80% to 65%. But the latest three-month outlook for January to March shows a potential for above-normal precipitation in Southwest California, Boldt said.

Forecasters are in El Niño watch mode, noting that sea temperatures along the equatorial Pacific have warmed, a possible signal that the storm-producing weather system is strengthening, Boldt said.

In the last four weeks, sea surface temperatures were also above average along the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño winters in Southwest California have been historically wet, which would be a welcome reprieve for a region parched by a prolonged drought.

Nearly 60% of the state is experiencing “exceptional” drought conditions, the harshest on a five-level scale as measured by U.S. Drought Monitor.

For breaking news in Los Angeles and throughout California, follow @VeronicaRochaLA. She can be reached at veronica.rocha@latimes.com.

Copyright © 2014, Los Angeles Times


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Jul 8 2014

Peru downplays El Nino chances, as waters begin to cool

Seafood News

SEAFOODNEWS.COM [SCOM]  July 8, 2014

According to Peru authorities, cooling sea temperatures are bringing back schools of anchovy.

 

Temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Pacific off Peru peaked in June, at 5.4 degrees F above average levels, but have since declined, and Peru authorities predict a return to normal temperatures by August, according to the State Committee monitoring El Nino.

 

“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.

 

Cold-water anchovy that swam south to escape warmer sea temperatures that arrived in April are making their way back now, Vasquez said.

 

“Anchovy are coming north,” Vasquez said. “There are already fish in the center of the country, but they’re still very close to the coast and not yet at their usual depth.”

 

Vasquez said sea temperatures off Peru’s coast could rise again slightly at the end of the year.

 

Such forecasts are also echoed by NOAA, that says there is a 70% chance of an El Nino beginning this summer, and an 80% chance of one beginning next winter.  However, the current El Nino index stands at .2, when a level of .5 generally indicates an El Nino is occuring.  In March and April these levels were reached, but since then temperatures have cooled.

 

NOAA says that a trough bringing lower than normal temperatures is partly responsible.

Photo Credit: Instituto del Mar del Peru


 

John Sackton, Editor And Publisher
SeafoodNews.com 1-781-861-1441
Email comments to jsackton@seafood.com

Copyright © 2014 Seafoodnews.com

Jun 13 2014

Unusual Fish Catches Off San Diego Signal Large-Scale El Niño, Researcher Says

Wednesday, June 11, 2014 | By Susan Murphy | Aired 6/11/14 on KPBS News.

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Wikimedia Commons

El Niño currents and warming water are drawing semi-tropical fish, such as yellowfin, to San Diego’s coast several months earlier than usual.

One telltale sign that this year’s coming El Niño could be a big one is what’s been reeled in off San Diego’s coast.

Above-average sea surface temperatures are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The weather phenomenon, called El Niño, changes the heating pattern of the atmosphere and pulls the Pacific jet stream farther south. It has the potential to play havoc on weather systems across the globe, causing heavy rain and mudslides in some areas, drought in others, and disrupting the marine food chain.

Previous strong El Niños caused above-average rainfall and coastal erosion in San Diego. In 1997-1998, the event was credited with dumping 17 inches of rain at Lindbergh Field.

“This looks really a lot like the ’97-’98 El Niño event, which was one of the biggest ones ever recorded,” said Tim Barnett, marine research physicist emeritus with Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

“We’ll just have to wait and see how things develop in the summer,” he added.

Barnett said the ’97-’98 event caused a northward shift of the whole fishery population, drawing an abundance of albacore and Bluefin tuna to San Diego’s unusually warm waters.

“We’ve already started to see very unusual fish catches here,” Barnett said. “The first yellowfin tuna was caught in May — that has never happened before to anybody’s recollection.”

“And the other thing too is the first dorado Mahi Mahi — first of June,” Barnett added, “that has never happened before. They really like the warm water and you normally don’t see them here until September.”

Barnett said both catches could be signatures of a coming large-scale El Niño. He said the tropical fish get caught up in currents caused by El Niño trade winds.

“They get entrapped in the current and they just swim along happily North,” Barnett said. “Unfortunately, it’s a one-way trip for most of them, it appears.”

In 1997-98, there were a lot of strange biological goings-on, Barnett added, like yellowtail being caught off Kodiak Island in Alaska. The tropical fish usually stops much farther south at Point Conception near Santa Barbara, California.

“And nobody could identify them, it’s really funny, they had never seen a yellowtail in Kodiak Island, and they had to send the fish out to be identified.”

Barnett said it’s still too early to project this year’s El Niño strength, but the unusual fish sightings are a good early indication.


SUSAN MURPHY, Reporter

May 17 2014

Intense El Nino seen likely to be developing this fall

Seafood News

SEAFOODNEWS.COM [SCOM] – May 15, 2014 –

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New NASA satellite images seem to show that El Niño conditions seem to be developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, data from satellites and ocean sensors indicate.  The ocean temperature profile in May 2014 appears very similar to that of 1997, when an intense El Nino cycle formed.

A natural climate cycle that brings abnormally toasty temperatures to the Pacific Ocean, El Niño occurs when winds pile up warm water in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific, triggering changes in atmospheric circulation that affects rainfall and storm patterns around the world.

Sea-surface height can reveal if such heat is being stored in particular regions of the ocean, since water expands as it warms. Above-normal sea-surface height in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, in turn, can suggest an El Niño is developing, according to NASA’s Earth Observatory.

That’s what is showing up right now, as satellite images taken from the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 satellite reveal sea-surface height, averaged over a 10-day period centered on May 3, is above normal. A similar anomaly showed up during May 1997 — which coincided with one of the strongest El Niños ever experienced. That year North America saw one of its warmest and wettest winters on record; Central and South America saw immense rainstorms and flooding; and Indonesia along with parts of Asia endured severe droughts, the Earth Observatory noted.

“What we are now seeing in the tropical Pacific Ocean looks similar to conditions in early 1997,” said Eric Lindstrom, oceanography program manager at NASA headquarters, in an Earth Observatory statement. “If this continues, we could be looking at a major El Niño this fall. But there are no guarantees.”

A network of sensors in the Pacific Ocean reveals a deep pool of warm water shifting eastward, supporting the satellite data, according to the Earth Observatory.
Model predictions issued on May 8 by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast that the chances of an El Niño developing during the summer are more than 65 percent. “These atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively indicate a continued evolution toward El Niño,” the alert read.

This event may be just the beginning of more intense El Niños to come, according to research detailed Jan. 19 in the journal Nature Climate Change. That study suggested the most powerful El Niño events may occur every 10 years rather than every 20 years, due to rising sea-surface temperatures overall in the eastern Pacific Ocean.


Republished with permission of SeafoodNews.com

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Apr 30 2014

El Nino could massively impact West Coast fish

Seafood News

News Summary: April 29, 2014

NOAA is predicting an El Nino for this summer that could massively impact West Coast fish, and raise global food prices

NOAA is now predicting with 65% confidence a major el Nino event will begin this summer, possibly as early as July.
El Nino can have a major impact both on fisheries and on agricultural commodities.  According to NOAA, fish that remain in their traditional habitats on the West Coast during El Nino experience reduced growth, reproduction, and survival.  On a global scale, El Nino brings warm water to the coast of South America, suppressing the upwelling that provides for rich anchovy fisheries.  The result is that Peru’s anchovy fisheries get severely …Read/subscribe to the original story and SeafoodNews here.

 

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John Sackton, Editor And Publisher , Lexington, Massachusetts
Seafood.com News 1-781-861-1441
Email comments to jsackton@seafood.com